Michael T. McCaul (R-TX) — Representative

Corruption Risk · 4-Vector Breakdown

Corruption isn't just trade-based. Here's the four ways political pressure can flow, scored independently from the public record.

📈 Vector 1 · Personal Enrichment trade-based

The politician's portfolio is defined by a massive scale of 16,252 trades over 5 years with a 34% overall win rate, but this masks severe sector-level anomalies. In aerospace, he achieves an 80% win rate, outperforming his overall rate by 46 points with an average return of 9.62% (`sector_expertise[18]`). Similarly, energy (57.5% win rate, +23.5 pts), financial services (56.9%, +22.9 pts), and healthcare (56.7%, +22.7 pts) show significant outperformance on large trade counts (>1,600 each). This pattern of high-frequency, broadly diversified trading (`profile.trading_styles`) with concentrated success in specific sectors suggests opportunistic positioning rather than informed stock-picking, further evidenced by a poor 34.4% average correlation between trades and bill activity (`bill_activity.avg_correlation`).

Trades 5y4,563

Buys / sells1,844 / 2,695

Volume 5y$320.0M

Late filing8.9%

Trader typeActive self-dealer

Narrative from model run 2026-04-30; figures in the stat row are live (deduplicated, 5y).

💵 Vector 2 · Donor Funding money in

PAC contributions total $16.6M, led by corporate_other (24.3%, $4.0M), leadership PACs (12.6%, $2.1M), and defense (10.2%, $1.7M) (`get_donor_industry_breakdown.top_industries`). The industry capture signal is strong, with a 100% lobbying-to-committee alignment score and $6.3M in lobbying spend targeting his committee jurisdictions over 5 years (`get_sponsor_profile.profile`; `get_lobbying_around_pol.total_lobbying_spend_on_pols_sectors_usd`).

Direct PAC$4.0M

Outside $ for$314K

Outside $ against$164K

Cycles5

FEC PAC + independent-expenditure files, all cycles on record, never summed across direction. By cycle and industry →

🏛 Vector 3 · Committee Pressure lobbying around

Defense industry capture via $1.7M in PAC donations (10.2% of total) and $1.3M in lobbying from clients like AMERICAN LEGION, aligned with his Homeland Security committee chairmanship (`get_donor_industry_breakdown.top_industries[2]`; `get_lobbying_around_pol.top_lobbying_clients_targeting_pols_committees[0]`).

technology

6,478 committee-sector trades; 100% lobbying alignment score (`get_sponsor_profile.profile`).

↳ Committee jurisdiction (Homeland Security) directly overseeing sector policy while executing 3,992 trades within it.

defense

`get_donor_industry_breakdown.top_industries[2]`; `get_lobbying_around_pol.top_lobbying_clients_targeting_pols_committees[0]`; `sector_expertise[18]`.

↳ PAC donations ($1.7M) and lobbying ($1.3M from AMERICAN LEGION) targeting his committee, concurrent with defense/aerospace trading (80% win rate).

Top influence channels

PAC Donations corporate_other $16.6M

Lobbying Spend AMERICAN LEGION $7.0M

Committee Jurisdiction Trading technology sector —

Committees2

Carve-outs on traded tickers13

Narrative from model run 2026-04-30. Jurisdiction vs. trades, committee by committee →

Recent Stock Trades · 5 oldest visible · 5 most recent 🔒 for Members

2026-06-29 VTEB Purchase $375K —

2026-06-29 AER Sale $8K —

2026-06-29 MA Purchase $8K —

2026-06-25 SPGI Purchase $8K —

2026-06-25 AER Sale $8K —

2026-06-18 CVCO Sale $8K —

2026-06-18 ZION Sale $8K —

2026-06-18 HSIC Sale $8K —

2026-06-18 GTES Sale $8K —

2026-06-18 PRI Sale $8K —

🔓 Unlock 5 most-recent trades + full history MEMBERS · $24.50/mo

All 16,488 disclosed trades →

🔮 GOVGREED FORECAST · 30-DAY WINDOW

Predicted next trades · 20 active · all →

↓ free sample below · 19 more for Members

A ACN ↑ bullish 62.0 conf House Homeland Security markup 2026-09-16 (4d) · scored 2026-09-12

A AVAV ↑ bullish 58.7 conf Bill Correlation Intelligence S.702 · Veterans Mental Health and Addiction Therapy Quality of Care Act · scored 2026-09-12

B WM ↑ bullish 54.3 conf Bill Correlation Intelligence HR.2878 · Daniel J. Harvey, Jr. and Adam Lambert Improving Servicemember Transit… · scored 2026-09-12

B AEIS ↑ bullish 54.3 conf Bill Correlation Intelligence HR.2878 · Daniel J. Harvey, Jr. and Adam Lambert Improving Servicemember Transit… · scored 2026-09-12

B BA ↑ bullish 52.7 conf Bill Correlation Intelligence S.702 · Veterans Mental Health and Addiction Therapy Quality of Care Act · scored 2026-09-12

🔓 Unlock 19 more predictions incl. our highest-confidence calls MEMBERS · $24.50/mo

Voting Pattern

Maintains perfect 100% attendance (`get_voting_record.attendance_pct`) but has been recorded as 'not voting' on several recent high-profile suspension votes, including HR.2493 and S.1020 on 2026-04-21 (`get_voting_record.recent_high_profile_votes`).

Frequently Asked Questions

How many stock trades has Michael T. McCaul made?

Michael T. McCaul (R-TX) has 4,563 deduplicated STOCK Act disclosures over the last five years, totaling $320.0M in disclosed trading volume at band midpoints (16,488 filings on record all-time). Congress discloses dollar bands, never exact amounts. The trade-by-trade record on this page updates daily from House Clerk and Senate eFD filings.

Does Michael T. McCaul trade stocks?

Yes — the public record shows 4,563 STOCK Act filings in the last five years. Whether any specific trade relates to committee work is a separate question: GovGreed cross-references each filing against committee assignments, bill activity, and donor records, and reports the overlaps without alleging wrongdoing.

Has Michael T. McCaul filed STOCK Act disclosures late?

Michael T. McCaul's late-filing rate over the last five years is 8.9% of disclosures filed past the STOCK Act's 45-day deadline. Across all of Congress, 12.1% of deduplicated filings arrive late, and the median filing takes 28 days. The statutory penalty for a late filing is $200.

How can I track Michael T. McCaul's stock trades?

GovGreed ingests House Clerk STOCK Act filings daily and scores each trade against committee assignments, bill activity, and donor patterns. This page updates automatically; GovGreed members get real-time alerts the moment a new Michael T. McCaul disclosure lands.

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