Corruption Risk · 4-Vector Breakdown
Corruption isn't just trade-based. Here's the four ways political pressure can flow, scored independently from the public record.
Vector 1 · Personal Enrichment trade-based
Representative Estes exhibits minimal trading activity with 12 total trades over five years, averaging $8,333 per position and a 17% overall win rate. His sector performance is highly divergent: a 100% win rate in energy (4 trades, avg return +17.79%) contrasts with 0% win rates in technology and telecom (4 trades each, avg returns -11.13% and -8.35%). However, with only 4 trades per sector, these anomalies are not statistically significant given the low trade count. All trades are sales, with zero late filings and an average disclosure gap of 16.6 days. No options trading or alignment with hedge fund smart money is present.
Trades 5y24
Volume$290K
Late filing—
Trader typeMinimal activity
Vector 2 · Donor Funding money in
Total PAC direct contributions over five years are $20.8M, with top industries being corporate_other (34.3%), healthcare (7.5%), defense (6.6%), and finance (5.8%). Individual contributions total $4.1M. Lobbying spend targeting his committees (Ways and Means, Budget) totals $11.4M over five years, with healthcare clients like HOSPICE COMPASSUS spending $1.7M. The `get_sponsor_profile.profile.industry_capture_signal` is 'strong'.
PAC raised$20.8M
Individual—
Vector 3 · Committee Pressure lobbying around
Defense industry capture via PAC contributions ($1.36M, 6.6% of total) and lobbying targeting Ways and Means/Budget committees.
defense
$1.36M from defense PACs (`get_donor_industry_breakdown.top_industries[2].amount_usd`)
↳ PAC contributions and lobbying targeting Ways and Means/Budget committees
healthcare
$1.72M from HOSPICE COMPASSUS (`get_lobbying_around_pol.top_lobbying_clients_targeting_pols_committees[0].total_spend`)
↳ Lobbying spend targeting healthcare issues under Ways and Means jurisdiction
Top influence channels
PAC contributions
corporate_other PACs
$20.8M
Lobbying spend targeting committees
HOSPICE COMPASSUS
$11.4M
12 MONTHS PAST · 3 MONTHS FUTURE
Activity timeline · 357 votes (12mo) · 200 on passage · 100% with party on passage votes
Votes/wk (top band)
with party
against party
present / unknown
Vote markers (passage only)
yea (with party)
nay (with party)
against party
Trades
buy
sell
Bills sponsored
★ introduced
Predictions / pipeline
model fire
committee bill
🔮 GOVGREED FORECAST · 30-DAY WINDOW
Predicted next trades · 24 active
Recent Activity
📋 COMMITTEE BILL PIPELINE
Bills moving through their committees · 6 active
Each row links a bill in their committee jurisdiction to the public companies its passage would affect — the upstream signal for a future trade.
Action for Dental Health Act
Financial Exploitation Prevention Act of 2025
Action Versus No Action Act
Dental Care for Veterans Act
Stronger Engagement for Indian Health Needs Act of 2025
Voting Pattern
Voted yea on 58 of 75 recent votes (77.3%), with 100% attendance. Recent high-profile votes include yea on HR.2493 and S.1020, and nay on HR.1689. Voting aligns with party majority positions.
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