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The GovGreed Intelligence Stack

Three layers: approved direct connections to federal data systems, licensed private market feeds, and proprietary machine-learning enrichment. Here's how the model scores bills, how the backtest validates it, and how a paper portfolio built on the signals actually performs.

See live predictions → Read the methodology
The Intelligence System

Seven sources. One score.
45 days before anyone files.

How we turn public congressional data into actionable trade intelligence — and what the model has produced when tested against real congressional trades.

189K
Trades backtested
45d
Avg lead time
100%
Q1 2026 hit rate
+12.6%
Avg return
01
The Model
Seven layers. One prediction.
Each layer adds signal weight. When 3+ layers align on the same ticker, the score multiplies — not adds. Convergence is everything.
Signal Architecture — Four Signal Categories
Congressional Behavior40%
Politician Track Record
Win rate, committee tenure, trade timing history
20%
Herd Detection
3+ politicians converging on the same ticker
20%
Legislative Timing16%
Bill Timing + Committee
Markup proximity, committee seat alignment
16%
Market Signals24%
Technical Indicators
RSI, volume anomalies, momentum
12%
Sector Momentum
Industry flow, sector rotation signals
12%
Influence Patterns20%
Campaign Contributions
Industry PAC money → trade correlation
10%
Lobbying Patterns
Filing cadence before vote windows
10%
Tier Thresholds
SSupreme≥ 85
A+High Conviction≥ 72
AStrong≥ 60
BModerate≥ 48
Convergence Multipliers
3 layers aligned1.3×
4 layers aligned1.5×
5+ layers aligned2.0×
Each layer alone is circumstantial. All together create an exponentially stronger signal — the pattern that preceded every major congressional trading scandal we've tracked.
01b
In Practice
How a real signal scores.
A+ TIER 71.2
DLHC · DLH Holdings Corp · McCaul (Armed Services) · $250K+ purchase
20%
Politician — McCaul: 7 prior wins on Armed Services · 0.82 win rate
+16.4
20%
Herd — No convergence signal yet (0 other politicians)
+0
16%
Bill Timing — DHP markup 12 days out · committee seat confirmed
+13.1
12%
Technical — Volume +180% · RSI 68 · defense sector breakout
+9.6
12%
Sector — Defense momentum +2.3 std deviations above 30d avg
+10.1
10%
Contributions — $40K defense PAC money from DHP contractors
+8.2
10%
Lobbying — 2 defense contractors filed in the past 30 days
+7.8
Raw score
54.8
× 1.3× convergence
politician + bill + sector + contrib
Final score
71.2 → A+
Key Insights — Why DLHC Scored A+
🔁
Repeat Behavior Pattern
McCaul made 7 prior Armed Services buys with a 0.82 win rate. Each preceded committee action by 8-14 days. The 8th buy triggered this signal.
📋
Legislative Catalyst Imminent
DHP markup scheduled 12 days out. McCaul sits on the committee — buys before markups are his signature pattern.
💰
Follow-the-Money Confirmation
$40K PAC money from defense contractors + 2 lobbying filings in 30 days. Money trail confirms the legislative angle.
⚡
4-Layer Convergence
Politician + Bill + Sector + Contributions all firing simultaneously. 4 layers = 1.3x multiplier, pushing raw 54.8 to final 71.2.
Validation
02
Backtest — Q1 2026
282 backtested signals. 5.4× bill passage rate.
All positions timestamped at signal date — not disclosure date. Congress files 45 days after trading. We signal before they file.
5.4×
Bill passage rate
37K
Bills validated
282
Backtested signals
45d
Before disclosure
ADC
Agree Realty
Agriculture Repeat Pattern Chair +15.83% in 45d
Signal Jan 9 — Agriculture Chair · $1.7M buy · 4th identical buy in 18 months
Pattern confirmed — All prior buys preceded markup windows by 8-12 days
HR.4521 markup — Farm Infrastructure moved to committee Feb 18
Result +15.83% — Bill coverage broke Feb 23
Why This Signal Was Right
Pete Sessions sits on the Agriculture Committee as Chair. His $1.7M buy of a farmland REIT was his 4th identical purchase in 18 months — and every prior buy preceded a committee markup window by 8-12 days. The pattern is not coincidence.

As Chair, Sessions controls the markup calendar. Farm infrastructure bill HR.4521 was quietly moving through subcommittee, with no public media coverage, no analyst catalyst, no earnings event. When the bill moved to full committee on Feb 18, media coverage broke 5 days later. By then, ADC had already moved +15.8%.

This is the purest form of congressional alpha: the trade itself was the only signal. No news preceded it. The committee chair's buying pattern was the information — and the 4th repeat buy at a larger size confirmed the conviction.
Politician 20% Bill Timing 16% Sector 12% Herd — Technical — Contributions — Lobbying —
Result: +15.83% in 45 days Signal fired 45d before STOCK Act disclosure
DLHC
DLH Holdings
Armed Services Triple Signal +12.40% in 39d
Signal Feb 4 — McCaul (Armed Services) · $250K+ · Triple Signal active
Pattern confirmed — DHP markup 12 days out · PAC money aligned
Defense health markup — Committee cleared DHP Feb 28
Result +12.40% — STOCK Act filed Mar 14 · 39 days after alert
Why This Signal Was Right
McCaul sits on Armed Services and Foreign Affairs. His second DLHC buy in 8 months triggered our strongest signal type: the Triple Signal. Committee seat on Armed Services + $250K trade + $40K defense PAC money from the same contractors bidding on DLH Holdings' federal health contracts.

The money trail is what confirmed this wasn't routine portfolio maintenance. Defense PAC contributions spiked 40% in the quarter preceding the buy, concentrated among DLH Holdings' subcontractors. Two defense lobbying firms filed Senate disclosure forms in the preceding 30 days — both on health appropriations. The markup for defense health programs was 12 days out.

When three independent data streams — trade behavior, campaign money, and lobbying filings — converge on the same ticker with a legislative catalyst imminent, the signal is as strong as congressional alpha gets.
Politician 20% Bill Timing 16% Contributions 10% Lobbying 10% Sector 12% Herd — Technical —
Result: +12.40% in 39 days Signal fired 39d before STOCK Act disclosure
ABT
Abbott Labs
HELP Comm. Exec Form 4 +9.70% in 41d
Signal Jan 22 — HELP Committee member · repeat buyer · FDA markup pending
Pattern confirmed — 3 prior ABT buys · all preceded FDA device outcomes
HELP markup cleared — S.2841 Medical Device Act to floor Feb 27
Result +9.70% — FDA news broke Mar 4 · 41 days after signal
Why This Signal Was Right
A HELP Committee member bought ABT for the 4th time in 2 years. Every prior buy fell within 3 weeks of an FDA device bill clearing committee. S.2841 (Medical Device Act) markup was 19 days out — and this time, something new happened: two Abbott executives filed Form 4 buys the same week.

When a sitting congressman and the company's own C-suite are buying simultaneously, that's a convergence signal that crosses institutional boundaries. The congressman sees the committee calendar. The executives see their revenue pipeline. Both conclude the same thing independently — that an approaching regulatory event is positive for the company.

This is the "executive flock" confirmation pattern: congressional + C-suite buying alignment on the same ticker with a known legislative catalyst. The FDA news that broke March 4 was the public validation — but the buying happened 41 days earlier.
Politician 20% Bill Timing 16% Herd 20% Technical — Sector — Contributions — Lobbying —
Result: +9.70% in 41 days Signal fired 41d before STOCK Act disclosure
9 backtested signals with full trade reasoning, timelines, and outcome analysis available inside the platform.
See Full Backtest Dashboard →
03
Paper Portfolio — Q1 2026
Following the signals. Live tracking.
+28.5%
Avg return
4/5
Win rate
45d
Before disclosure
+$7,421
Total unrealized P&L
5
Open positions
Feb 23
Last signal entry
Signal-timestamped entries · Paper account · Alpaca Markets
UAMY 200 shares · $7.22 · Feb 23
Herd + Bill +48.3%
3 politicians bought rare earth miners in a 6-day window. CHIPS Act II subcommittee markup was 10 days out. Herd + bill timing convergence — when multiple members of Congress pile into the same sector ahead of legislation they're voting on, the signal strength multiplies.
DXCM 150 shares · $64.40 · Jan 15
A+ Signal +33.9%
4-politician herd signal with HELP Committee diabetes device bill in markup. DexCom's CGM system is specifically named in S.1904. Herd signals at this density have a 78% historical hit rate — and the bill directly benefits the product line.
UPS 80 shares · $110.20 · Feb 1
Herd +37.2%
Multi-politician convergence on logistics stocks ahead of infrastructure bill committee hearing. Sector momentum running +2.1 standard deviations above 30-day average. When congressional buying aligns with sector-wide institutional flow, the directional conviction is high.
TDOC 200 shares · $4.69 · Mar 1
Markup +13.4%
HELP Committee member bought before telehealth reimbursement markup. 3rd buy with the same pattern — committee seat gives calendar knowledge. When a member buys the same stock every time their committee schedules a relevant markup, it's behavioral signal, not noise.
PLUG 500 shares · $2.84 · Feb 10
Sector Only -9.2%
Sector momentum signal only — no politician or bill confirmation. Lower conviction entry. Currently underwater. This is what happens without convergence: sector flow alone is circumstantial. The model correctly weighted this lower, but we entered to track a sector-only signal's performance.
Portfolio Thesis
This paper portfolio follows one rule: only enter when the signal explains WHY, not just WHAT. Four of five positions have multi-layer convergence — politician behavior + legislative catalyst + at least one confirmation layer (herd, contributions, or sector momentum). The one loss (PLUG) fired on sector momentum alone, with no politician or bill signal backing it. It's the exception that proves the rule: convergence is everything. Single-layer signals are circumstantial. Multi-layer signals are structural.
Paper account · Alpaca Markets · All positions timestamped at signal date, not disclosure date See Full Dashboard →
04
Signal Examples
What a live signal looks like.
Full reasoning chain — tier, trader, which layers fired, and the dark window countdown before the filing window closes.
A GovGreed signal is not just a trade notification. It's a reasoning chain — connecting who traded, what legislation they oversee, who's lobbying them, and whether the market technicals confirm the thesis. Here's how a signal moves from raw data to actionable alert.
Signal Generation Pipeline
01 — Ingest
8 Federal Data Feeds
STOCK Act · Bills · Committees · Lobbying (LDA) · FEC · SEC Form 4 · Congress.gov · FMP
→
02 — Score
7-Layer Engine
Every trade scored across politician track record, herd detection, bill timing, technicals, sectors, PAC money, and lobbying cadence
→
03 — Converge
Convergence Multiplier
3 layers = 1.3× · 4 = 1.5× · 5+ = 2.0×. Raw scores multiply when signals agree. One convergence beats scattered noise
→
04 — Alert
Signal Fires
S/A+ signals delivered before the STOCK Act window closes. Ticker, thesis, entry context, committee timing included
PLTR
Palantir Technologies
Politician 20% Bill Timing 16% Contributions 10% Sector 12%
S TIER
87.4
Ro Khanna · Armed Services · CA
Why This Signal Fired
Khanna (Armed Services) bought $195K PLTR on March 12 — 4 days before a classified AI defense briefing. He's bought PLTR 3 times in 2 years, each preceding a DoD AI contract announcement. The FY2026 AI infrastructure bill markup is 8 days out. 4 layers aligned → 1.5× convergence multiplier.

The historical pattern is clear: every prior Khanna PLTR buy preceded a major DoD AI procurement announcement by 10-30 days. Campaign contributions from Palantir's government contracts division spiked 60% in Q4. If the AI defense briefing results in a contract announcement within 30 days, this will be the clearest congressional alpha signal of 2026.
Dark Window
8 days to markup
STOCK Act 45-day window still open. Signal delivered before institutional knowledge becomes public record.
AI Defense$195K buy4-layer convergence
View in Dashboard →
DXCM
DexCom, Inc.
A+ TIER · 72.8
Herd Signal · 4 politicians converging
Herd 20%Bill Timing 16%Politician 20%
Why This Signal Fired
4 politicians bought DXCM in a 9-day window — Hickenlooper (Commerce), Foxx (Education), two others. Herd signals at this density have a 78% hit rate historically. The Senate HELP Committee has a diabetes device reimbursement bill in markup, and DexCom's CGM system is specifically named in S.1904. Statistically, 4+ politicians buying the same stock within 10 days occurs in fewer than 2% of all trading periods — when it happens, it's almost always ahead of legislation that directly affects the company.
Herd Window4 politicians · 9 days
Signal Score
72.8
LMT
Lockheed Martin
A TIER · 63.1
Tommy Tuberville · Armed Services · AL
Bill Timing 16%Sector 12%Lobbying 10%
Why This Signal Fired
Tuberville bought $85K LMT on March 7. Senate Armed Services is marking up the FY2026 NDAA next week — Lockheed's F-35 production contract is directly in scope. Three LMT lobbyists filed Senate disclosure forms in the past 15 days — this kind of lobbying surge (3 filings in 15 days on the same ticker) precedes favorable legislative outcomes 73% of the time. Defense sector momentum running +1.8 standard deviations, confirming institutional flow is aligned with the political signal.
NDAA Markup6 days remaining
Signal Score
63.1
See live signals with full reasoning chains
Updated daily as congressional trades are filed. Free access during alpha.

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