For Institutions · Bill Pass Index Data Feed

The first calibrated bill-passage probability with a published methodology.

For hedge fund desks, wealth managers, policy research teams, and newsrooms. We deliver the BPI as a structured data feed with daily snapshots, a backtest harness, historical archive, and optional whitelabel. Calibrated against 37,132 bills with known outcomes. AUC 0.74.

Request Access Read the Methodology
0.7378
AUC (ROC)
37,132
Bills Backtested
5,340
Predictive Samples
7,838
Live Bills Scored Daily
12.29%
Actual @ 12.2% Predicted

Sourced from approved direct connections to federal data systems (SEC, Federal Reserve, Congress.gov, FEC) + licensed private market-data feeds + proprietary ML enrichment. Every input is auditable at the source. Full methodology: /methodology.html.

Deliverables

What the feed includes.

01 · CORE

Daily BPI Probabilities

Calibrated pass-probability score (0–100) for every active US congressional bill. Refreshed daily against GovTrack state + timeline data. JSON + CSV.

02 · TIMELINE

Historical Snapshot Archive

Every day's predictions, retained indefinitely. Run your own backtests against our historical scores. Useful for compliance, research, and audit trails.

03 · IMPACT

Whale EV Ranking

Ranked feed of bill–ticker pairs by Expected Value = P(pass) × estimated revenue impact × market-cap leverage × confidence. Surfaces asymmetric small-cap opportunities.

04 · TIMING

Committee Markup Calendar

Upcoming markups pre-joined to affected tickers and current pass probabilities. Positioning window: 14–45 days before floor votes.

05 · AUDIT

Explainability API

For any bill, get the full per-factor contribution breakdown: base prior, companion bonus, staleness adjustment, final score. No black box.

06 · CUSTOM

Whitelabel & SLA

Branded delivery, custom formats, dedicated support. Enterprise contracts include SLA and named account management.

Audience

Built for teams where legislative risk is alpha.

Hedge Fund Desks

Legislative catalysts as a forward-looking signal. Policy-risk hedging. Small-cap asymmetric entry timing when a bill hits REPORTED.

Wealth Managers

Client-facing BPI dashboards. Explainable probabilities for regulated compliance discussions. Per-sector tailwind metrics.

Policy Research

Academic and think-tank access to empirically-calibrated bill outcomes. Historical snapshots for longitudinal studies.

Financial Journalism

Citable, sourced probabilities for policy-and-markets reporting. Methodology is public; calibration is auditable.

Corporate Government Affairs

Track bills affecting your sector. Pre-passage positioning on regulatory trajectories. Whitelabel branded for your team.

Trading Algorithms

Structured feed for quant systems. Backtestable historical archive for strategy development. JSON + CSV + streaming options.

Delivery

How the data gets to you.

Formats & Frequency

  • JSON feed — daily refresh at 8 AM UTC, live bills scored
  • CSV exports — full historical archive since 2026-04-17
  • Webhook delivery — push events on state transitions > threshold
  • Direct DB access — read-only credentials (enterprise)
  • Whitelabel portal — your branding, our backend

What's under the hood

  • Three data layers — federal connections, licensed private feeds, proprietary ML
  • No scrapers, no middlemen — direct, approved pipes
  • Deterministic model — no black box; every score has a factor breakdown
  • Versioned methodology — model version pinned on every output
  • Published backtest — calibration numbers publicly verifiable
Landscape

What we provide that the incumbents don't.

Bloomberg Government, FiscalNote, Quorum, and others track bills at the text level. None publish a calibrated bill-passage probability with a backtested accuracy figure.

Capability Bloomberg Gov FiscalNote Quorum GovGreed BPI
Bill text + metadata tracking
Committee schedule integration
Bill-to-ticker impact mapping partial (908K rows)
Calibrated passage probability AUC 0.74
Published empirical methodology ✓ Live
Daily snapshot archive Since 2026-04-17
Explainability per bill Factor breakdown API
Whale EV ranking ✓ Proprietary

Based on publicly available product descriptions. Reach out if you spot an inaccuracy and we'll correct it.

Ready to see the feed?

Pricing is custom based on use case, volume, and redistribution rights. Typical engagements include a trial window with full historical access. We're selective about early institutional partners — we want serious desks willing to provide feedback while we harden the product.

Request Access · team@mmamodel.ai
Primary
team@mmamodel.ai
Live feed sample

Owner: IPS Innovative Platform Solutions. Bill Pass Index is for informational purposes. Not financial advice.