Five Signals. One Edge.
Each signal alone is circumstantial. Cross-referenced together, they're the clearest picture of where political money is flowing before the market knows.
Political Insider Alert
Fires when a politician sits on the committee controlling a bill, has traded stock in an affected company, and received campaign contributions from that industry. Why these three together? Each alone is circumstantial. A committee seat is just a job. A trade is just a portfolio decision. A contribution is just fundraising. But when all three converge on the same ticker — the probability of informed trading jumps to 78% based on our 14-year backtest. This is the strongest corruption indicator we track.
Corporate Insider Pre-Vote Buys
SEC Form 4 disclosures cross-referenced with congressional vote calendars. When a CEO buys $2M of stock 41 days before a congressional vote on legislation affecting their company — that's not coincidence. Form 4 filings reveal what corporate insiders know about their own regulatory environment. We measure the timing gap between executive buys and upcoming congressional votes, flagging purchases that cluster in the 4-90 day pre-vote window where informed positioning is statistically significant.
Committee Hearing Alerts
When a committee schedules a markup, insiders know the bill is moving. This is the buy window — typically 4-21 days before the broader market prices in the legislative progress. Committee members see the calendar before it's public. The markup announcement is the catalyst — but the congressional buying that precedes it is the signal. Our backtest shows that trades placed within 14 days of a markup outperform the S&P 500 by an average of 8.3% at the 30-day mark.
Investability Scoring
Machine learning model trained on 3 congressional sessions (42,143 bills, 188K historical trades). The model uses 25 features — sponsor committee seniority, co-sponsor count velocity, bill subject overlap with active lobbying, historical enactment rates by committee, and more. Bills scoring 70+ are enacted at 9.1% vs 1.7% for medium-tier — a validated 5.4× signal. High-investability bills also attract 3.2× more congressional trading volume in the 30 days following introduction. All inference runs in PostgreSQL — no external ML service dependency.
Consortium Buy Detection
When 5+ C-suite officers buy simultaneously with zero sellers, that's a flock. This matters because executive buying is the highest-conviction insider signal — officers are risking personal capital on their own company's future. GovGreed tracks buyer headcount, capital deployed, and sector clustering across 22,731 SEC Form 4 transactions. Our enrichment layer separates PE fund exits from genuine C-suite conviction using officer tenure, title hierarchy, and transaction history. When a flock coincides with a congressional trade in the same sector, the combined signal has delivered a 67% win rate over 10 years.
